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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 16 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP