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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 30

Detroit Lions 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model