4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 88

Detroit Lions 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to PHI 42, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model