Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 38

(14:27) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-G.Tate to DET 25 for 9 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model