Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 45

(8:28) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.45 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model