Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 85

Detroit Lions 45 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 45 for 5 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.06 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model