Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 79

Detroit Lions 45 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(1:15) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for -2 yards (10-C.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.71 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model