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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model