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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to PHI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model