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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP