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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Seattle Seahawks 32

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP