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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model