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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model