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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model