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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 99

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 61 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to ATL 34 for 28 yards (50-O.Schofield).

The Three Options

GO -4.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model