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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP