Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model