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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to TB 23 for 13 yards (27-R.Therezie).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model