Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 16 – Carolina Panthers 13

(:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to CAR 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.20 EP
49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model