Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 27 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:47) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to NO 36, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 38 for 2 yards (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on NO-24-K.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.49 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model