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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 38 – Carolina Panthers 41

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 10-B.Cooks.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP