Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

(12:54) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 31-O.Bolden pushed ob at DEN 49 for 21 yards (97-J.Attaochu).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.10 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model