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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model