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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:51) 5-M.Scifres punts 51 yards to DEN 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model