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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 48

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-12-A.Caldwell.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model