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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 37

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 12 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP