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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 85

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LAC 45, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 49 for 4 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model