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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model