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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model