Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 65

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

(11:26) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to GB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model