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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 81

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model