Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 80

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

(2:19) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.08 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model