Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 71

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

(:21) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.32 EP
30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model