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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 16

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model