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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 33

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model