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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:36) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 33 yards to PIT 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP