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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(11:05) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP