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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model