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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 38

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to PIT 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-84-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP