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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 45

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief to PIT 22 for 33 yards (23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model