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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model