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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to KC 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 85-F.Hammond MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 10. 85-F.Hammond to KC 10 for no gain (42-L.Asante). PENALTY on KC-54-D.Moses, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model