Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 94

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(11:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 43, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to KC 49 for 8 yards (54-D.Moses).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.55 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model