4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model