Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(1:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-J.Ross to LV 14 for no gain (17-C.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model