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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 86

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 37, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model