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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 11-S.Janikowski 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model