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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 31 for -6 yards (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.85 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP