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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 35
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 89-A.Cooper.
The Three Options
GO
+1.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK
+0.83 EP
- 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 36% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
