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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NE 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-D.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (53-N.Goode; 42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model